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RollingWave
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 31, 2014 2:19 am    Post subject: Sengoku Samurai Podacast discussion Reply with quote
Great stuff, some of the random stuff I'd like to talk about.

1. While Korea had nothing to do with Toyotomi's survival, a better question was what if he had not suddenly change his inheritance plan? Toyotomi Hidetsugu was an adult and unlike his uncle look like a fully capable breeder, assuming we agree that most of the crap said about him was piled on after his death. If 30 year old Hidetsugu inherits the clan, with all his alliance already set up and already with many kids (both boy and girl) that seem like it had a solid chance of surviving no?

2. I find it highly amusing that the "wise old retainers" advising Katsuyori to not fight in Nagashino just happened to get killed in battle, how convenient Wink . Given that nature of the Takeda realm, I think it might have been the exact opposite, that the retainers told Katsuyori they ain't giving up this campaign before any gains, and Katsuyori not having enough sway simply had to go along with it.


3. Regarding Shingen's design on Kyoto etc. I think one should note that while Conservative daimyo's primary goal was survival, if they had a chance to go for a greater glory they would still take it, Tokugawa Ieyasu was the perfect example, until 1600 there was no noticable difference between his realm and the Takeda realm, the only difference was that he was the small fry caught between a bunch of mighty lords for most of his life. Ieyasu's operating method was extremely similar to say.. Mori Motonari (granted, with more occasional lost of self control Wink) a guy that essentially played various big fish around him until he became the biggest fish.

Thus from that perspective, if Shingen felt that he had a chance on Kyoto, it seems that would have been a no brainer he'd say "hey, we can at least give it a try until we run into too much resistance" and certainly beating down a potential future enemy was not a foreign concept to the Japanese daimyos (the "ally with the far and attack the close" concept of classical china.) it seems that while they may not specifically thought about "let's become the new Shogun" they did think about "well we do need to beat down Oda Nobunaga right now before he becomes an insurmountable threat" as a real strategic plan. and if they did accomplish that goal it would have essentially made them into the new Nobunaga and essentially with Shogun level power.

Just some random thoughts
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mktanaka
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
RollingWave wrote:
Great stuff, some of the random stuff I'd like to talk about.

1. While Korea had nothing to do with Toyotomi's survival, a better question was what if he had not suddenly change his inheritance plan? Toyotomi Hidetsugu was an adult and unlike his uncle look like a fully capable breeder, assuming we agree that most of the crap said about him was piled on after his death. If 30 year old Hidetsugu inherits the clan, with all his alliance already set up and already with many kids (both boy and girl) that seem like it had a solid chance of surviving no?


Just some random thoughts


My views is Hideyoshi's decision to go to Korea was an important reason his family rule ended. If no action (to go to Korea) was taken, the chance for the Toyotomi clan to survive would have had been higher... Some key Daimyo's may have sided with Toyotomi instead of Ieyasu if there was no Korea invasion.

Letting Hidetsugu remain as Regent would also have increased chances of the Toyotomi survival, but Mitsunari/Yodo wanted to be puppet master/mistress and Hideyori was a easier puppet to manipulate than Hidetsugu would have been...

if Hidetsugu was Regent, Kobayakawa Hideaki may not have flipped in that the killing of Hidetsugu and his entire family a few years earlier played a role in Hideaki envisioning of his own future with Mitsunari/Yodo in control and fate he would have once business was settled with Ieyasu and their focus then zeroed in on him.

My personal views is no matter who was head of the Toyotomi clan (Hideyori/Mitsunari/Yodo or Hidetsugu) it would eventually fall. Obviously the former did fall.



My view is the time Hideyoshi spent with the Korean invasion should have been on home front building deeper alliances for those who would help protect his family once gone. Even so, if he did that, I am not convinced the Toyotomi clan would remain in control of Japan soon after his death but would just increase chances it would. Hideyoshi's rise from peasant to Grand Regent is truly one of epic proportions, but also brought envy and disdain. As is the case of power, many Daimyo bowed their heads to Hideyoshi because they had to..(not because they wanted to, but that can be said of all big 3)

as with all "what if's" that is what they are.. just opinions of would of/should of/could of.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Sengoku Samurai Podacast discussion Reply with quote
RollingWave wrote:


3. Regarding Shingen's design on Kyoto etc. I think one should note that while Conservative daimyo's primary goal was survival, if they had a chance to go for a greater glory they would still take it, Tokugawa Ieyasu was the perfect example, until 1600 there was no noticable difference between his realm and the Takeda realm, the only difference was that he was the small fry caught between a bunch of mighty lords for most of his life. Ieyasu's operating method was extremely similar to say.. Mori Motonari (granted, with more occasional lost of self control Wink) a guy that essentially played various big fish around him until he became the biggest fish.

Thus from that perspective, if Shingen felt that he had a chance on Kyoto, it seems that would have been a no brainer he'd say "hey, we can at least give it a try until we run into too much resistance" and certainly beating down a potential future enemy was not a foreign concept to the Japanese daimyos (the "ally with the far and attack the close" concept of classical china.) it seems that while they may not specifically thought about "let's become the new Shogun" they did think about "well we do need to beat down Oda Nobunaga right now before he becomes an insurmountable threat" as a real strategic plan. and if they did accomplish that goal it would have essentially made them into the new Nobunaga and essentially with Shogun level power.


In Ieyasu's case he had been running with the big dogs for decades, and not only was he surrounded by competitive, driven, and in some cases brilliant men with wild ambition, but he also navigated and survived it. He was in the middle of it from the start, so he had a perspective on what the potentials were, and since he survived to 1600 in the first place, he was obviously politically shrewd - all things that showed him what was possible, and the shrewdness to pull it off. Socially/politically he was a participant in the high level processes, unlike the vast majority of Daimyo outside of Nobunaga's and Hideyoshi's confederation.

Shingen, on the other hand spent a lot of time squabbling with neighbors, and when he finally secured his borders enough to move out, he went North rather than West. I think it's safe to infer that the situation at home wasn't that great for him by the 1560s when he otherwise may have been able to consider a move, so he was constrained by that, and realistically, what would "taking Kyoto" mean to him? That he has a thinly stretched corridor from Kai to Kyoto and an essentially unprotected home province? He really made no calculated steps to build his power base, which you would expect of someone with a grand design on the realm - which is what Nobunaga actually did.

Obviously I don't have any real evidence to back it up, but if you really think about it and put yourself in the shoes of a Daimyo in the 1560s, would most of them even see a point in "taking Kyoto" for themselves when faced with the logistics of the trip, the potential pitfalls, and the traditional clan values and hurdles including old landed families who support the Daimyo insofar as the Daimyo does what they want or expect? I even wonder what Yoshimoto was really thinking - Did he really think that Daimyo would just get in line behind him if he went to Kyoto, or were his goals much more basic? He was a fan of Kyoto, and he may have not expected that Daimyo would line up behind him at all, but that he just wanted to help secure himself a spot in the capital if things changed. Had he skipped Nobunaga and arrived in Kyoto, but everything else stayed the same, Nobunaga might have been forced to work with Yoshimoto in the capital (and probably eventually get rid of him). I don't think it's so straight forward as "All Daimyo knew that if they marched on Kyoto, they would become ruler of all Japan", and I think even less had the foresight to even consider it, or the temerity to think that they could actually accomplish it if they did. That's just my two cents on it.

This thread reminds me that I really have to create a sub forum for podcast discussion, so we can get more direct input and participation. I'll try to do that in the next couple days.
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RollingWave
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Aye, but by the late 1560s it was clear that the Takeda's new strategic goal (since they finally achieved their original goal of finding some sea access) was to beat down Nobunaga while they still can.

Supposedly that this strategy succeeded, they would have been most likely left with gaining all of the Tokugawa domain and Owari + Mino, by that point reaching Kyoto was both much more logistically feasable and the Takeda realm would also have expanded to the point where they probably start to think things in a different light. (they would have full control over 7 regions.)

My generally argument is that, if someone really did beat Nobunaga after 1568, they probably BECOME Nobunaga.
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ltdomer98
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
RollingWave wrote:
Aye, but by the late 1560s it was clear that the Takeda's new strategic goal (since they finally achieved their original goal of finding some sea access) was to beat down Nobunaga while they still can. 


Except, Oda Nobutada married Shingen's daughter Matsuhime in 1567. There wasn't open conflict between Nobunaga and Shingen until after the burning of Mt. Hiei in 1571 and the public split between Nobunaga and Ashikaga Yoshiaki. Saying that Shingen's goal was to beat down Nobunaga "by the late 1560's" is wrong.

Quote:
Supposedly that this strategy succeeded, they would have been most likely left with gaining all of the Tokugawa domain and Owari + Mino, by that point reaching Kyoto was both much more logistically feasable and the Takeda realm would also have expanded to the point where they probably start to think things in a different light. (they would have full control over 7 regions.)

My generally argument is that, if someone really did beat Nobunaga after 1568, they probably BECOME Nobunaga.


Perhaps, perhaps not. Shingen joined a coalition against Nobunaga that had Yoshiaki as its hub. Do I think all the players involved were held together by a desire to support Yoshiaki? Heck no. But that they were held together by a desire to prevent Nobunaga's hegemony does not necessarily mean they all wanted to have that hegemony for themselves. Shingen might have--he also might not have. Or, had they succeeded in destroying Nobunaga, perhaps at that point he'd decide that he was a better choice to lead than the idiot Yoshiaki...who knows. Would someone fill the void left by the death of Nobunaga after 1568? Sure. Would it necessarily be the goal of anyone opposed to him? I disagree. For some, maybe. For some, maybe not. Ieyasu wasn't exactly planning his rise to Shogun at this time. Hideyoshi only had the prospect after Honnoji. The Mori very clearly eschewed any attempt at national power. The majority of major daimyo at this time were more interested in preserving their regional autonomy. Perhaps there were a few, Shingen among them, that wanted to seize national control and Nobunaga just got their first. I think that's an assumption we make though--one that deserves serious questioning.

From 2015, we look back and see what happened, and assume that's the way things would happen regardless of who was at the reins of power. But as I've said here and on the podcast, it's not a big game of Risk or Shogun:Total War, with the necessary condition for "victory" being "total domination". Hideyoshi's success, I agree with Berry, was as much due to the fact that regional daimyo felt their regional control would be protected from rivals if they allied under Hideyoshi's leadership. Submission meant keeping (more or less) what you had. If Sengoku Japan was a fully neo-realist system, then it really would have been a "win or die" scenario, but I don't think it was. It was under Nobunaga--which is why the violent reactions and resistance to him by those who later accepted Hideyoshi's hegemony.

I'd recommend David Spafford's book on the early Sengoku daimyo in the Kanto for a great demonstration of how the majority of daimyo, rather than looking to the future to establish new systems, were looking back and trying to re-establish the stability of older ones. This is why Nobunaga was truly unique, in my opinion. Even Hideyoshi did his best to make sure everything he did was covered in courtly legitimacy.

Bottom line, Shingen may or may not have intended national hegemony, but the assumption that he MUST have, or that any daimyo MUST have, is problematic and post hoc.
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Last edited by ltdomer98 on Sat Jan 03, 2015 8:09 am; edited 2 times in total
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maikeruart
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Is it possible his goal was expansion to gain resources and thwart his rivals? It seems that early in the game there was no cost/benefit in his favor for taking Kyoto.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2015 6:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
maikeruart wrote:
Is it possible his goal was expansion to gain resources and thwart his rivals? It seems that early in the game there was no cost/benefit in his favor for taking Kyoto.


That was pretty typical - "I've dabbled in expansion at the expense of a couple neighbors who were getting out of hand, and now my vassals are starting to expect lands, so now I have to go out campaigning just to keep them off my back." I'm pretty sure Shingen's trips North were as much this as "I need fish and salt".
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2015 6:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
ltdomer98 wrote:
Ieyasu wasn't exactly planning his rise to Shogun at this time. Hideyoshi only had the prospect after Honnoji. The Mori very clearly eschewed any attempt at national power. The majority of major daimyo at this time were more interested in preserving their regional autonomy. Perhaps there were a few, Shingen among them, that wanted to seize national control and Nobunaga just got their first. I think that's an assumption we make though--one that deserves serious questioning.

From 2015, we look back and see what happened, and assume that's the way things would happen regardless of who was at the reins of power. But as I've said here and on the podcast, it's not a big game of Risk or Shogun:Total War, with the necessary condition for "victory" being "total domination".


I agree with pretty much everything you said, and the above in particular is important to note. Ieyasu was shrewd enough to navigate decades of political and literal killers which allowed him to come out on the other end with enough experience to end up on top, his was a special case. And, the misconception that all the Daimyo were trying to capture the flag just doesn't reflect reality. The vast majority of Daimyo had way too much to worry about on the local level or in their house to have such a grand scheme as "I want to run the country".
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Ieyasu and his activities in laying the Tokugawa foundation that then could hold up for 250 years is truly a significant accomplishment. This system that Ieyasu laid also helped Japan from being colonized by European countries that occurred to other Asian countries during this period. I think early on, Ieyasu handed the Shogun title over to Hidetada so he could focus more on his long range vision and less with the day to day activities that would take his attention away from his main goal he had for the balance of his life. As with many things in life, luck and good fortune can play in the outcomes at hand, but the actual skills of one also has a significant role.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Skills that he had forged in the very specific situation he lived in for 50 years dealing with some of the greatest and most dangerous men of his generation, which is why he isn't typical.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2015 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Iyeasu was extremely calculating, I mean he would not have broken his oath to Toytomi, if he did not see an advantage. A lot of his policies seem well thought out too.
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